US Homelessness Up 12% to Highest Reported Level as Rents Soar and Coronavirus Pandemic Aid Lapses
The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) reported that homelessness in America increased by 12% in a single year, reaching the highest level since the government began tracking the data. The point-in-time count — conducted on a single night in January — found over 650,000 people experiencing homelessness. This number, already staggering, is widely understood to be an undercount.
The causes are not mysterious. They are documented, measurable, and the direct result of policy choices. Here is what the data shows.
The Numbers
HUD’s Annual Homeless Assessment Report (AHAR) provides the most comprehensive snapshot of homelessness in the United States. The 2023 count found approximately 653,000 people experiencing homelessness on a single night — a 12% increase from the previous year and the highest number since tracking began in 2007.
The increase was not uniform across demographics. Family homelessness increased significantly. Veteran homelessness, which had been declining for a decade due to targeted programs, reversed course and increased. Chronic homelessness — defined as individuals with disabilities who have been homeless for a year or more — also rose.
These are not abstract statistics. Each number is a person sleeping in a shelter, a car, a tent, or on concrete.
Cause 1: Rent Increases Outpacing Income
The median rent in the United States increased by approximately 30% between 2019 and 2023. During the same period, median wages increased by roughly 15-20%. The math is simple: when housing costs rise faster than income, more people cannot afford housing.
The standard measure of housing affordability is the 30% threshold — a household spending more than 30% of gross income on housing is considered “cost-burdened.” By this measure, roughly half of all renters in the US are cost-burdened. Among low-income renters, the figure exceeds 80%.
When a cost-burdened household experiences any financial shock — a medical bill, a car repair, a job loss, a reduction in hours — the margin between housed and unhoused disappears. The 12% increase in homelessness is what happens when millions of people are living on that margin and enough of them experience shocks simultaneously.
Cause 2: Pandemic Aid Expiration
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government implemented several policies that directly prevented homelessness: an eviction moratorium, expanded unemployment benefits, emergency rental assistance programs, and enhanced SNAP (food stamp) benefits. These programs worked. Homelessness actually decreased during the pandemic — a remarkable outcome during an economic crisis.
Then the programs expired.
The eviction moratorium ended in August 2021. Emergency rental assistance funds were distributed unevenly — some states exhausted their allocations quickly while others returned unspent funds. Enhanced unemployment benefits ended in September 2021. The expanded Child Tax Credit, which lifted millions of children out of poverty, expired at the end of 2021.
The 12% increase in homelessness tracks precisely with the timeline of these expirations. The pandemic demonstrated that direct financial support prevents homelessness. The post-pandemic period demonstrated what happens when that support is removed.
Cause 3: Housing Supply
The United States has a housing deficit estimated at 3-7 million units, depending on the methodology. This deficit is concentrated in the markets where jobs are — major metropolitan areas where zoning restrictions, construction costs, and community opposition limit new housing construction.
When supply is constrained and demand grows (through population growth, household formation, and migration to job centers), prices rise. When prices rise beyond what low- and moderate-income households can afford, those households are displaced. When displacement exceeds the capacity of the social safety net, homelessness increases.
This is not a market failure in the traditional sense — it is a policy failure. Zoning laws that prohibit multi-family housing in most residential areas, permitting processes that add years and millions of dollars to construction timelines, and community opposition that blocks affordable housing projects are all policy choices with predictable consequences.
What the Data Suggests
The most effective interventions share a common characteristic: they provide housing directly.
Housing First programs — which provide permanent housing without preconditions like sobriety or employment — have strong evidence bases. Studies consistently show that Housing First reduces homelessness more effectively and at lower cost than the traditional “treatment first” approach, which requires individuals to address behavioral health issues before receiving housing.
Rapid rehousing — short-term rental assistance combined with case management — has shown effectiveness for families and individuals experiencing recent homelessness.
Prevention programs — emergency financial assistance to households at risk of eviction — are the most cost-effective intervention. Preventing homelessness is far cheaper than responding to it.
The Bottom Line
A 12% increase in homelessness to a record high is not an inevitable outcome of economic forces. It is the predictable result of rising rents, expiring safety net programs, and insufficient housing construction. Each of these factors is within the reach of policy intervention. The question is not whether we know how to reduce homelessness — we do, and the pandemic proved it. The question is whether the political will exists to sustain the investment.